RSSThe Brookings Institution has compared the performance of the Obama’s Government with past Cabinets in How We’re Doing: A Composite Index of Global and National Trends. There are some aspects that are being performed worse, while others offer a good face. However, we should not forget that current President is managing an unprecedented crisis. More
The Obama’s Scenarios
2009/08/12
General, International Relations, Political Economy, Public Sector Leave a comment
The European Union and the Soft Power
2009/07/26
International Relations International_Relations, think_tank 2 Comments
Soft power by Cinderellusion in Flickr
When the EU began its big enlargement, many people thought it was rising the new superpower, also in military terms. USA was not going to be the only policeman on the block. However, leaders of the EU have preferred to maintain the influence in the field of soft power. As Charles Grant, Director of the Centre for European Reform, says, “although the Union is respected for its prosperity and political stability, it no longer loooks like a power in the making”. More
Broken promises for Africa
2009/05/05
International Relations, Political Economy Africa, Cato_Institute, corruption, free_trade, liberalism, public_debt, think_tank Leave a comment
It is always Africa. The forgotten continent. It could be an empty lost planet, like Mars, but there are millions and of persons fighting to survive in its beautifully sad lands. You can see the metaphor of Africa in a sequence of The Constant Gardener, when people run away through the desert as bandits come to rob and kill them. While white men could get on the plane, black people only have the choice of running faster than their captors. The support of the white man is only an illusion because if times go harder, like in the movie, there is no chance to save Africans. More
The Renaissance of the Nuclear Threat
2009/04/16
International Relations frank barnaby, International Relations, IPPR, nuclear power, plutonium, public_policy, think_tank, wmd Leave a comment
Among other also bad consequences, economic crisis is playing a key role in the growing weakness of the public debate. We understand that political firemen are very busy looking for a a way to solve the financial nightmare but it is not healthy the rest of us are only thinking on macroeconomics. A big number of hot questions are waiting for public policy decisions. We should remember that in terms of global stability we were not very comfortable two years ago. Economic situation has worsened, but other problems have not gone better.
It is the case of the nuclear threat. Nuclear energy is being discussed because more people agree to a revival in its use. Fourth generation plant and the need to generate a lot of cheap energy are harder arguments than the points of the environmentalists and socialist political parties. The nuclear lobby enjoys to be listened by a bigger audience and there are many plans to increase the number of atomic power plants in all over the Western world. We have not solved the problem of the nuclear waste, but it seems we do not care about next generations as we did.
A New Public Diplomacy Strategy for the United States
2009/02/26
International Relations America, Bush, Christopher_Paul, foreign_policy, International_Relations, propaganda, public_diplomacy Leave a comment
We need the power of America, but it is hard to recognize it. Specially among citizens of Western Europe, people do not have a good opinion of American foreign policy. The situation varies if the White House incumbent is a member of the Democrats, but in general, it is like a tradition to criticise American actions and ask for helping when things are getting worse. Man is contradiction.
A New National Security Strategy: Cooperation, Visibility and Good Bye to the Cold War
2009/02/23
International Relations Alexis_de_Tocqueville, democracy, Democracy_in_America, insurgency, intelligency, IPPR, National_security, Terrorism, think_tank, United_Kingdom Leave a comment
A long time ago, Alexis de Tocqueville wrote in Democracy in America that were going to sacrifice freedom in favour of security. It is the logical evolution of democracy, where citizens are frightened by the threats of insurgent people who want to destroy their confortable althoug sometimes unfair system. The last terrible episodes of our recent History show that the military confrontation between countries has been replaced by the fight against those destructive groups. The attackers could come from other countries but also they could be people without national indetity. Even they are members of our communities.
If China is in economic trouble, bad expectations
2009/02/19
International Relations, Political Economy Brookings_Institution, capitalism, climate_change, financial_crisis, International_Relations, political_economy, think_tank, US_economy Leave a comment
China has been the great icon of globalisation. His powerful economic development was a sign of the prosperity of the decade. Every country made business with China and this country was the huge consumero f economic resources. When the financial crisis started, even the Chinese authorities thought they were going to be free from the economic problems and predicted a growth of a 9 percent of GDP for 2009.
Now we have evidence that China is also facing the crisis. He will grow more than any other developed country, but the effects of the crisis are emerging in his figures. Wing Thye Woo, Senior Fellow of the Brookings Institution, explains in China’s Short-term and Long-term Economic Goals and Prospects that
“China’s economic situation in 2009 does not look good. The IMF’s January 2009 projection of growth was 6.7 percent, which was down from its November 2008 projection of 8.5 percent. The February 2009 estimate of the number of jobs lost by migrant workers was 20 million, which was double the estimate of December 2008”.
Several analysts claim that the situation of China will affect to the recovery of the United States, as America needs the financial support of the big country. In fact, if China does not begin structural reforms in his economy, we can see a commercial war between two of the main nations of the Planet. “Some analysts say that the US housing bubble was able to continue only because China prevented the long term interest rate from rising by continually investing its large trade surpluses into Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae Bonds”.
The last thing we need is a war, according to the Brookings analista. We have to reinforce the public diplomacy strategy to persuade Chinese officials about the need to increase the reforms towards a more balanced economic system.
“China’s economy has been like a speeding car for almost 30 years. The high-probability failures that could cause the car to crash in the near future could be classified under three categories (1) hardware failure, (2) software failure, and (3) power supply failure”.
These three scenarios show serious problems like a banking and financial crisis, difficulties in Government with the explosion of social protest due to corruption and inequality, or external limitations to the China’s growth: climate change, a shortfall in energy resources and a commercial war with other countries. The author draws a pessimistic future over the best engine of the global progress.
Another hard time for Africa
2009/02/05
International Relations Africa, International_Relations, Radical_Islam, Terrorism Leave a comment
International economic crisis has taken apart other big problems, like the weak global order. Sometimes I think Mr Bush and his Halliburtons have created the financial nightmare to move the political and media agenda from the disaster of war against terrorism to the economic matters. Even I believe they have chosen Mr Obama to become President and therefore avoid hard scrutiny over their mismanagement. The race question, the civil rights stuff and the spirit of Martin Luther King dominate the public opinion arena and hide other serious problems. You know it is easy to nominate a future President in conspiracy meetings of Skull and Bones, Bilderberg Club and others. There is not problem to find a dark rountdtable to make decisions on the future of the world without asking citizens, the supposedly bearers of the light of democracy. But who needs voters if can set up a Conspiration Tank?
My reflection is related to the lack of discussions about the global threats. Despite the dubious efforts of Dick Cheney and his Oil Brothers, the fact is that after seven years of strange wars, international balance is as fragile as in 2001. Even worse, as the United States have started their unstoppable decline. At this time, we do not have another superpower and it means no stability at all in the near future.
Terrorists have not been defeated. They are reorganised and have chosen other places to prepare a new season of their deadly war. Where are they? It easy to know, at least according to the opinion of Angel Rabasa, Senior Policy Analyst of the Rand Corporation. He says that Al-Qaeda has gone to Africa, making profit of the fact that
“The internal conflict and corruption enveloping weak African governments make it easy for terrorists to move, plan and organize”
In Radical Islam in East Africa, the expert argues that terrorist leaders have infiltrated in East Africa countries and are conquering the support of population. Although Africans do not like the Arabic Islam, they are accepting the work of charities, which offer economic aid and win the confidence of citizens. Mr Rabasa asks for the reinforcement of the coalition of the United States, the European Union and other developed countries to helping Africa in a economic and social progress which put the continent far from the dark side. Otherwise, we will add another very hot spot in the planet. We have not taking care of the hungry Africa because it was a not a menace to our welfare. But, lucky for them, we are going to change our mind. Thanks to terrorists. However, now the Western intervention is not going to be an humanitarian trip. The poor always pay twice.
